BREATHING COMETS

Comet atlas

A census of CO₂ released by comets, measured in SPHEREx frames. Each point is one comet at the epoch of its census, with the 16–84% range of the production rate Q.

20 comets · 17 detected · 2 with systematics · 1 marginal · 0 not detected

Read these first

  • This is a census by pass, not a real-time monitor: SPHEREx revisits each comet only a few times a year, and public data lag by weeks.
  • Q is proportional to the outflow speed. Assuming a speed of 0.50 instead of 0.85 r_h^−0.5 km/s lowers every Q by about 40%: treat this as a systematic on top of the plotted range.
  • Beyond 10 au the band flux is too small for a trustworthy Q. Those points are marked and should not be interpreted.
  • “With systematics” means a band is present (S/N ≥ 5) but the band model fits poorly (χ²ᵣ ≥ 50): the Q shown is not trusted at its quoted precision.

Q(CO₂) against heliocentric distance

10²³10²⁴10²⁵10²⁶10²⁷10²⁸1251020Heliocentric distance r_h (au)Q(CO₂) (s⁻¹)
DetectedWith systematicsMarginalNot detected Far: unreliable

Select a point or a row to see its numbers.

Census table

Cometr_h (au)Δ (au)Q(CO₂) 16–50–84% (s⁻¹)S/N det.σ_F/Fn_coreχ²ᵣStatusCOH₂O
1.020.175.44 × 10²³ · 7.61 × 10²³ · 1.03 × 10²⁴4.10.243115.8Marginalno data—
1.781.502.21 × 10²⁵ · 2.73 × 10²⁵ · 3.34 × 10²⁵27.10.04352.1Detectedupper limitdetection3.60 × 10²⁶
2.011.673.06 × 10²⁵ · 3.79 × 10²⁵ · 4.65 × 10²⁵24.70.04946.9Detectedupper limitno coverage
2.061.764.15 × 10²⁵ · 1.00 × 10²⁶ · 1.70 × 10²⁶14.20.59104.1Detectedno coverageupper limit
2.111.951.70 × 10²⁷ · 2.09 × 10²⁷ · 2.55 × 10²⁷50.00.020171.6With systematicscandidateCO/CO₂ 0.7no coverage
2.131.876.23 × 10²⁴ · 8.21 × 10²⁴ · 1.07 × 10²⁵5.70.18232.3Detectedupper limitdetection1.32 × 10²⁶
Details 2.151.812.78 × 10²⁷ · 3.42 × 10²⁷ · 4.18 × 10²⁷41.10.0252185.2With systematicscandidateCO/CO₂ 1.5no coverage
2.161.791.51 × 10²⁶ · 1.86 × 10²⁶ · 2.27 × 10²⁶28.00.036319.2Detectedupper limitdetection1.29 × 10²⁷
2.181.881.07 × 10²⁶ · 1.38 × 10²⁶ · 1.78 × 10²⁶11.70.15702.0Detectedupper limitno coverage
2.211.992.06 × 10²⁶ · 2.53 × 10²⁶ · 3.09 × 10²⁶42.40.0241038.7Detectedupper limitupper limit
2.452.282.06 × 10²⁶ · 2.54 × 10²⁶ · 3.11 × 10²⁶22.50.044119.4Detectedno datano coverage
3.453.352.52 × 10²⁶ · 3.10 × 10²⁶ · 3.79 × 10²⁶35.20.03124.8Detectedno data—
3.573.508.92 × 10²⁶ · 1.10 × 10²⁷ · 1.34 × 10²⁷53.30.01914.7Detectedupper limit—
3.833.734.31 × 10²⁶ · 5.30 × 10²⁶ · 6.48 × 10²⁶63.70.01921.5Detectedupper limit—
3.933.597.11 × 10²⁶ · 8.75 × 10²⁶ · 1.07 × 10²⁷37.90.02812.2Detectedno data—
4.364.303.89 × 10²⁶ · 4.79 × 10²⁶ · 5.87 × 10²⁶30.30.03634.4Detectedupper limit—
4.634.589.59 × 10²⁵ · 1.24 × 10²⁶ · 1.58 × 10²⁶7.50.14522.7Detectedupper limit—
5.494.974.20 × 10²⁶ · 5.20 × 10²⁶ · 6.40 × 10²⁶30.60.05311.8Detectedno coverage—
Details 6.306.208.29 × 10²⁶ · 1.03 × 10²⁷ · 1.27 × 10²⁷20.30.05339.0DetecteddetectionCO/CO₂ 43.8—
Far: unreliable14.9714.911.35 × 10²⁷ · 1.75 × 10²⁷ · 2.24 × 10²⁷6.90.145710.2Detectedupper limit—

Measured, then checked

Two results are compared with published values. A measurement that falls inside the published range is consistent with it; it is not an independent confirmation.

ResultThis workPublishedCheck
3I/ATLAS · CO₂ · 2025-081.17 × 10²⁷ s⁻¹9.40 × 10²⁶–1.60 × 10²⁷inside the published range
statistical ±3.00 × 10²⁵; χ²ᵣ 27.5; 16–84% 8.60 × 10²⁶–1.38 × 10²⁷
16–84% interval from the research notes, not re-run in this build.
Lisse et al. 2025, RNAAS, arXiv:2508.15469 (0.94e27, preliminary); Lisse et al. 2026, ApJL 1000, L52, arXiv:2512.07318 (1.6e27 +/- 0.16e27)
29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann · CO · 2025-124.50 × 10²⁸ s⁻¹2.90 × 10²⁸–5.60 × 10²⁸inside the published range
χ²ᵣ 127.3; CO/CO₂ 43.8 [36.6–51.9]
Bockelee-Morvan et al. 2022 (IRAM, 2.9-5.6e28); quiescent 1.8e28 (Festou et al. 2001)

Pending: 3I/ATLAS H₂O in August 2025 is not shown. no retained CSV or reproducible script output for the August 2025 H2O fit; the guide cites 4.0e26 against 3.2e26 (Lisse et al. 2026) but it is not exported until re-derived

Method in brief

CO₂ ν₃ band model with P and R branches over a sky-subtracted spectrum; Q from a Haser parent model with a Monte Carlo over flux, calibration, g-factor, lifetime and speed. Detection requires S/N ≥ 5 and χ²ᵣ < 50. Percentiles are 16/50/84.

detected: S/N_det >= 5 and chi2_red < 50; with_systematics: S/N_det >= 5 and chi2_red >= 50; marginal: 3 <= S/N_det < 5; not_detected: S/N_det < 3

Data files: 3I_aug2025_bandfits.csv, 3I_aug2025_spectrum.csv, co2_census_physical.csv, co_census_final.csv, h2o_census.csv, q_vs_aperture.csv

Download the atlas data (JSON)
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